Uncertainties in baseline risk estimates and confidence in treatment effects

作者：Frederick A. Spencer, Alfonso Iorio, John J. You, M. Hassan Murad, Holger J. Schünemann, Per Olav Vandvik, Mark Crowther, Kevin Pottie, Eddy Lang, Joerg J Meerpohl, Yngve Falck–Ytter, Pablo Alonso‐Coello, Gordon Guyatt · 发表于：BMJ · 年份：2012 · DOI：10.1136/bmj.e7401 · 被引用次数：56 · 研究领域：Meta-analysis and systematic reviews、Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life、Venous Thromboembolism Diagnosis and Management

The GRADE system provides a framework for evaluating how risk of bias, publication bias, imprecision, inconsistency, and indirectness may reduce confidence in estimates of relative effects of interventions on outcomes. However, GRADE and all other systems for rating confidence in effect estimates do not fully address uncertainty in baseline risk and its impact on confidence in absolute estimates of treatment effect. In this article the authors examine factors that may reduce confidence in estimates of baseline risk and thus estimates of absolute treatment benefit