Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations

作者：Drew Shindell, Jean‐François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, M. Flanner, C. Jiao, Mian Chin, Paul J. Young, Y. H. Lee, Leon Rotstayn, N. M. Mahowald, George P. Milly, G. Faluvegi, Yves Balkanski, W. J. Collins, Andrew Conley, S. B. Dalsøren, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, Larry W. Horowitz, Xiaohong Liu, Gunnar Myhre, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naïk, Steven T. Rumbold, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Kengo Sudo, Sophie Szopa, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Jin‐Ho Yoon, Fiona Lo · 发表于：Atmospheric chemistry and physics · 年份：2013 · DOI：10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013 · 被引用次数：484 · 研究领域：Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols、Atmospheric aerosols and clouds、Atmospheric Ozone and Climate

Abstract. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) examined the short-lived drivers of climate change in current climate models. Here we evaluate the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of which also participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The models reproduce present-day total aerosol optical depth (AOD) relatively well, though many are biased low. Contributions from individual aerosol components are quite different, however, and most models underestimate east Asian AOD. The models capture most 1980–2000 AOD trends well, but underpredict increases over the Yellow/Eastern Sea. They strongly underestimate absorbing AOD in many regions. We examine both the direct radiative forcing (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (effective radiative forcing; ERF, including direct and indirect effects). The models' all-sky 1850 to 2000 global mean annual average total aerosol RF is (mean; range) −0.26 W m−2; −0.06 to −0.49 W m−2. Screening based on model skill in capturing observed AOD yields a best estimate of −0.42 W m−2; −0.33 to −0.50 W m−2, including adjustment for missing aerosol components in some models. Many ACCMIP and CMIP5 models appear to produce substantially smaller aerosol RF than this best estimate. Climate feedbacks contribute substantially (35 to −58%) to modeled historical aerosol RF. The 1850 to 2000 aerosol ERF is −1.17 W m−2; −0.71 to −1.44 W m−2. Thus adjustments, including cloud...