Statistical Methods for Persistent Precipitation Patterns

作者：A. M. Feyerherm, L. Dean Bark · 发表于：Journal of applied meteorology · 年份：1965 · DOI：10.1175/1520-0450(1965)004<0320:smfppp>2.0.co;2 · 被引用次数：53 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Precipitation Measurement and Analysis

Procedures are developed to estimate the probability of occurrence for a given consecutive sequence of wet and dry days which begins with a specified day of the year. A good first approximation for such a probability can be obtained by assuming that the sequence can be described as a first order Markov chain. Initial and transition probabilities in the Markov chain model are estimated so as to reflect seasonal variation.