Climate, competition and connectivity affect future migration and ranges of European trees

作者：Eliane S. Meier, Heike Lischke, Dirk R. Schmatz, Niklaus E. Zimmermann · 发表于：Global Ecology and Biogeography · 年份：2011 · DOI：10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00669.x · 被引用次数：257 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Forest Insect Ecology and Management

ABSTRACT Aim Species ranges have adapted during the Holocene to altering climate conditions, but it remains unclear if species will be able to keep pace with recent and future climate change. The goal of our study is to assess the influence of changing macroclimate, competition and habitat connectivity on the migration rates of 14 tree species. We also compare the projections of range shifts from species distribution models (SDMs) that incorporate realistic migration rates with classical models that assume no or unlimited migration. Location Europe. Methods We calibrated SDMs with species abundance data from 5768 forest plots from ICP Forest Level 1 in relation to climate, topography, soil and land‐use data to predict current and future tree distributions. To predict future species ranges from these models, we applied three migration scenarios: no migration, unlimited migration and realistic migration. The migration rates for the SDMs incorporating realistic migration were estimated according to macroclimate, inter‐specific competition and habitat connectivity from simulation experiments with a spatially explicit process model (TreeMig). From these relationships, we then developed a migration cost surface to constrain the predicted distributions of the SDMs. Results The distributions of early‐successional species during the 21st century predicted by SDMs that incorporate realistic migration matched quite well with the unlimited migration assumption (mean migration rate over E...