Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause andcause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of DiseaseStudy 2013

作者：Mohsen Naghavi, Haidong Wang, Rafael Lozano, Adrian Davis, Xiaofeng Liang, Maigeng Zhou, Stein Emil Vollset Vollset, Ayşe Abbasoğlu Özgören, Rosana Norman, Theo Vos, Alan D López, Christopher Murray · 发表于：EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) · 年份：2015 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(14)61682-2 · 被引用次数：643 · 研究领域：Health disparities and outcomes、Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management、Global Health Care Issues

BACKGROUND: Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. METHODS: We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countrie...