Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

作者：Mohammad Hossein Forouzanfar, Ashkan Afshin, Lily Alexander, H Ross Anderson, Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta, Stan Biryukov, Michael D Brauer, Richard Burnett, Kelly Cercy, Fiona Charlson, Aaron J. Cohen, Lalit Dandona, Kara Estep, Alize J Ferrari, Joseph Jon Frostad, Nancy Fullman, Peter W Gething, William W Godwin, Max Griswold, Simon Iain Hay, Yohannes Kinfu, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Heidi Jane Larson, Xiaofeng Liang, Stephen S Lim, Patrick Y Liu, Alan D López, Rafael Lozano, Laurie Marczak, George A. Mensah, Ali H. Mokdad, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Mohsen Naghavi, Bruce Charles Neal, Marissa B Reitsma, Gregory A Roth, Joshua A. Salomon, Patrick J Sur, Theo Vos, Joseph A. Wagner, Haidong Wang, Yi Zhao, Maigeng Zhou, Gunn Marit Aasvang, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Kaja M Abbas, Foad Abd-Allah, Abdishakur M Abdulle, Semaw Ferede Abera, Biju Abraham, Laith J Abu-Raddad, Gebre Yitayih Abyu, Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Zanfina Ademi, Arsène Kouablan Adou, José Carmelo Adsuar, Emilie Elisabet Agardh, Arnav Agarwal, Anurag Agrawal, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Oluremi N Ajala, Tomi F Akinyemiju, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Noore K M Alam, Saleh Fahed Aldhahri, Robert William Aldridge, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Raghib Ali, Ala'a Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Ubai Alsharif, Khalid A Altirkawi, Elena Alvarez Martin, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Azmeraw T. Amare, Alemayehu Amberbir, Adeladza Kofi Amegah, Heresh Amini, Walid Ammar, Stephen Marc Amrock, Hjalte H Andersen, Benjamin O. Anderson, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Johan Ärnlöv, Al Artaman, Hamid Asayesh, Rana J Asghar, Reza Assadi, Suleman Atique, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Peter Azzopardi, Umar Bacha, Alaa Badawi, Maria C Bahit, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Aleksandra Barac, Ryan M Barber, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Sı́món Barquera, Lars Barregård, Lope H. Barrero, Sanjay Basu, Carolina Batis, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Justin Beardsley, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Brent Bell, Michelle Lee Bell, Aminu K Bello, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M Bensenor, Adugnaw Berhane, Eduardo Bernabé, Balem Demtsu Betsu, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Neeraj B. Bhala, Anil Bhansali, Samir Bhatt, Sibhatu Biadgilign, Boris T. Bikbov, Donal Bisanzio, Espen Bjertness, Jed D Blore, Rohan Borschmann, Soufiane Boufous, Rupert R Bourne, Michael Brainin, Alexandra Bražinová, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, David M. Broday, Traolach Sean Brugha, Bert Brunekreef, Zahid A Butt, Leah E Cahill, Bianca Calabria, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Rosario Cárdenas, David O. Carpenter, Juan Jesus Carrero, Daniel Casey, Carlos Andrés Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Rubén Castro, Ferrán Catalá-López, Jung‐Chen Chang, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Mirriam Chibalabala, Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal A Chitheer, Jee-Young Jasmine Choi, Hanne Christensen, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Liliana G Ciobanu, Matthew M Coates, Samantha Colquhoun, Alejandra G Contreras Manzano, Leslie T Cooper, Kimberly Cooperrider, Leslie Cornaby, Monica Cortinovis, John A Crump, Lucía Cuevas‐Nasú, Albertino Damasceno, Rakhi Dandona, Sarah C Darby, Paul Ivor Dargan, José das Neves, Adrian Davis, Kairat Davletov, E. Castro, Vanessa Vianey De la Cruz-Góngora, Diego De Leo, Louisa J Degenhardt, Liana C Del Gobbo, Borja del Pozo Cruz, Robert Paul Dellavalle, Amare Deribew, Don C Des Jarlais, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Preet K Dhillon, Cesar Diaz-Torné, Daniel Dicker, Eric L. Ding, E. Ray Dorsey, Kerrie E Doyle, Tim Driscoll, Leilei Duan, Manisha Dubey, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Iqbal Elyazar, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Holly E Erskine, Babak Eshrati, Alireza Esteghamati, Saman Fahimi, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Talha A Farid, Carla Sofia e Sa Farinha, André Faro, Maryam S Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Jefferson G Fernandes, Florian Fischer, Joseph R A Fitchett, Tom Fleming, Nataliya A Foigt, Kyle J Foreman, F Gerry R Fowkes, Richard Charles Franklin, Thomas Fürst, Neal D Futran, Emmanuela E. Gakidou, Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Johanna Marianne Geleijnse, Bradford D. Gessner, Ababi Zergaw Giref, Maurice Giroud, Melkamu Dedefo Gishu, Giorgia Giussani, Shifalika Goenka, Mari Carmen Gomez-Cabrera, Hector Gomez-Dantes, Philimon Nyakauru Gona, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Carolyn Cook Gotay, Atsushi Goto, Hebe Gouda, Harish Chander C Gugnani, Francis Guillemin, Yuming Guo, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Juanita A Haagsma, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Demewoz Haile, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Yara A. Halasa, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Alexis J Handal, Graeme J. Hankey, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan, Josep Maria Haro, Mohammad Sadegh Hassanvand, Tahir Ahmed Hassen, Rasmus J. Havmoeller, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Norberto Francisco Hernández-Llanes, Pouria Heydarpour, Hans Wijbrand Hoek, Howard J. Hoffman, Masako Horino, Nobuyuki Horita, Hung Chak Ho, Damian G Hoy, Mohamed Hsaïri, Aung Soe Htet, Guoqing Hu, John J. Huang, Abdullatif S Husseini, Sally J Hutchings, Inge Huybrechts, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Bulat Idrisov, Bogdan Vasile Ileanu, Manami Inoue, Troy A Jacobs, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo B Jakovljevic, Henrica A. F. M. Jansen, Simerjot Kaur Jassal, Mehdi Javanbakht, Sudha Jayaraman, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Sun Ha Jee, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Vivekanand Jha, Ying Jiang, Tariku Jibat, Ye Jin, Catherine O Johnson, Jost Bruno Jonas, Zubair Kabir, Yogeshwar Kalkonde, Ritul Kamal, Haidong Kan, André Karch, Corine Karema, Chante Karimkhani, Amir Kasaeian, Anil Kumar Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Dhruv S Kazi, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Laura Kemmer, Andrew Haddon Kemp, André Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Yousef Saleh Khader, Abdur Rahman Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Shahab Khatibzadeh, Sahil Khera, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja, Jagdish Khubchandani, Christian Kieling, Cho-il Kim, Daniel J Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Niranjan Kissoon, Miia Kivipelto, Luke D. Knibbs, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Jacek A Kopec, Parvaiz Ahmad Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Michael A Kravchenko, Hans Kromhout, Hans Krueger, Tiffany Ku, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Ricardo S Kuchenbecker, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Ernst Johan Kuipers, G Anil Kumar, Gene F. Kwan, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea M. Lallukka, Qing Lan, Anders Larsson, Asma Abdul Latif, Alicia E. B. Lawrynowicz, Janet L Leasher, James Edward Austen Leigh, Janni Leung, Miriam Levi, Xiaohong Li, Li Yichong, Juan Liang, Shiwei Liu, Belinda K Lloyd, Giancarlo Logroscino, Paulo A. Lotufo, Raimundas Lunevičius, Michael F MacIntyre, Mahdi Mahdavi, Marek Majdán, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Wondimu Ayele Ayele Manamo, Chabila C Mapoma, Wagner Segura Marcenes, Randall V Martin, Jose Martinez-Raga, Felix Masiye, Kunihiro Matsushita, Richard Matzopoulos, Bongani M. Mayosi, John J McGrath, Martin McKee, Peter Andrew Meaney, Catalina Medina, Alem Mehari, Fabiola Mejía‐Rodríguez, Alemayehu B Mekonnen, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Ziad Ahmed Memish, Walter Mendoza, Gert B M Mensink, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Yonatan Moges Mesfin, Francis Mhimbira, Anoushka Millear, Ted R. Miller, Edward J Mills, Mojde Mirarefin, Awoke Misganaw, Charles N Mock, Alireza Mohammadi, Shafiu Mohammed, Glen Mola, Lorenzo Monasta, Julio C Montañez Hernandez, Marcella Montico, Lídia Morawska, Rintaro Mori, Dariush Mozaffarian, Ulrich Otto Mueller, Erin C Mullany, John Everett Mumford, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana Murthy, Jean B Nachega, Aliya Naheed, Vinay B. Nangia, Nariman Nassiri, John N Newton, Marie Ng, Quyen Le Nguyen, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie Pete, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Rosana E. Norman, Bo Norrving, Luke Nyakarahuka, Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In‐Hwan Oh, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Pedro R Olivares, Helen Olsen, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, John Nelson Opio, Eyal Oren, Ricardo Orozco, Alberto Ortiz, Erika Ota, Mahesh PA, Adrian Pana, Eun‐Kee Park, Charles D. H. Parry, Mahboubeh Parsaeian, Tejas Patel, Angel J Paternina Caicedo, Snehal T Patil, Scott Burton Patten, George C Patton, Neil Pearce, David M. Pereira, Norberto Perico, Konrad Pesudovs, Max Petzold, Michael Phillips, Frédéric B Piel, Julian David Pillay, Dietrich Plaß, Suzanne Polinder, Constance D Pond, C. Arden Pope, Daniel P Pope, Svetlana Popova, Richie G Poulton, Farshad Pourmalek, Noela Marie Prasad, Mostafa Qorbani, Rynaz H S Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mahfuzar Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Sasa Rajsic, Murugesan Raju, Usha Ram, Saleem M Rana, Kavitha Ranganathan, Puja Rao, Christian Aspacia Razo García, Amany Hussein Refaat, Colin D Rehm, Jürgen Rehm, Nikolas Reinig, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Serge Resnikoff, Antonio Luiz P Ribeiro, Juan A Rivera, Hirbo Shore Roba, Alina Rodriguez, Sonia Rodriguez-Ramirez, David Rojas‐Rueda, Yesenia Roman, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Ambuj Roy, Muhammad Muhammad Saleh, Juan Ramon Sanabria, Lídia Sànchez-Riera, Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño, Tania G Sánchez-Pimienta, Logan Sandar, Damian F Santomauro, Itamar S Santos, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Benn Sartorius, Maheswar Satpathy, Miloje Savic, Monika S. Sawhney, Josef Schmidhuber, Maria Inês Schmidt, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Ben Schöttker, Aletta E Schutte, David C. Schwebel, James G. Scott, Soraya Seedat, Sadaf Ghajarieh Sepanlou, Edson E Servan-Mori, Gavin Shaddick, Amira Shaheen, Saeid Shahraz, Masood Ali Shaikh, Teresa Shamah Levy, Rajesh Sharma, Jun She, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Jiabin Shen, Kevin N Sheth, Peilin Shi, Kenji Shibuya, Mika Shigematsu, Min-Jeong Shin, Rahman Shiri, Kawkab Shishani, Ivy Shiue, Mark G Shrime, Inga D Sigfusdottir, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Jonathan I Silverberg, Edgar P. Simard, Shireen Sindi, Abhishek Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Prashant Kumar Singh, Erica Leigh Slepak, Michael Soljak, Samir Soneji, Reed J D Sorensen, Luciano Alberto Sposato, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Nadine Steckling, Nicholas Steel, Dan J. Stein, Murray B Stein, Heidi Stöckl, Saverio Stranges, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Bruno Fokas Sunguya, Soumya Swaminathan, Bryan L. Sykes, Cassandra E I Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Ken Takahashi, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Nikhil Tandon, David Tanné, Mohammad Ali Tavakkoli, Belaynew Wasie Taye, Hugh R Taylor, Bemnet Amare Tedla, Worku Mekonnen Tefera, Teketo Kassaw Tegegne, Dejen Yemane Tekle, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, J S Thakur, Bernadette A Thomas, Matthew Lloyd Thomas, Alan J Thomson, Andrew Thorne‐Lyman, Amanda Gay Thrift, George D. Thurston, Taavi Tillmann, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Myriam Tobollik, Roman Topor-Madry, Fotis Topouzis, Jeffrey A Towbin, Bach Xuan Tran, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Abera Kenay Tura, Emin Murat Tuzcu, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Eduardo A Undurraga, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Olalekan A Uthman, Aaron van Donkelaar, Jim van Os, Yuri Y Varakin, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, J Lennert Veerman, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Stein Emil Vollset, Gregory R. Wagner, Stephen G. Waller, Jian Li Wang, Linhong Wang, Yanping Wang, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G Weintraub, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Harvey Whiteford, Tissa Wijeratne, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Charles D.A. Wolfe, Sungho Won, Anthony D. Woolf, Mamo Wubshet, Denis Xavier, Gelin Xu, Ajit Kumar Yadav, Bereket Yakob, Ayalnesh Zemene Yalew, Yuichiro Yano, Mehdi Yaseri, Pengpeng Ye, PAUL S. F. YIP, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Mustafa Z Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Zoubida Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Jun Wei Zhu, Ben Zipkin, Sanjay Zodpey, Liesl Joanna Zuhlke, Christopher J L Murray · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31679-8 · 被引用次数：7835 · 研究领域：Health, Environment, Cognitive Aging、Risk Perception and Management、Occupational and environmental lung diseases

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure...