Assessing the role of HLA-linked and unlinked determinants of disease.

作者：NEIL J. RISCH · 发表于：PubMed · 年份：1987 · 被引用次数：542 · 研究领域：Celiac Disease Research and Management、T-cell and Retrovirus Studies、Diabetes and associated disorders

The relationship between increased risk in relatives over population prevalence (lambda R = KR/K) and probability of sharing zero marker alleles identical by descent (ibd) at a linked locus (such as HLA) by an affected relative pair is examined. For a model assuming a single disease-susceptibility locus or group of loci tightly linked to a marker locus, the relationship is remarkably simple and general. Namely, if phi R is the prior probability for the relative pair to share zero marker alleles identical by descent, then P (sharing 0 markers/both relatives are affected) is just phi R/lambda R. Alternatively, lambda AR, the increased risk over population prevalence to a relative R due to a disease locus tightly linked to marker locus A, equals the prior probability that the relative pair share zero A alleles ibd divided by the posterior probability that they share zero alleles ibd, given that they are both affected. For example, for affected sib pairs, P (sharing 0 markers/both sibs are affected) = .25/lambda S. This formula holds true for any number of alleles at the disease locus and for their frequencies, penetrances, and population prevalence. Similar formulas are derived for sharing one and two markers. Application of these formulas to several well-studied HLA-associated diseases yields the following results: For multiple sclerosis, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, and coeliac disease, a single-locus model of disease susceptibility is rejected, implying the existence ...